G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Advisor, IMC-ERTF
IMC-ERTF (Economic Research and Training Foundation) is pleased to announce it Kharif 2025 crop production outlook following the gradual withdrawal of southwest monsoon.
The report is researched and prepared by ERTF Advisor G. Chandrashekhar.
All data in this report are official data except 2025 Kharif production forecast which is based on extensive research by ERTF.
Production Outlook for Key Kharif 2025 Crops
As of September 29, 2025. Mumbai
| CROP | Output 2024 | Target 2025 | Area 2024 | Area 26/09/25 | Production 2024 | Forecast 2025 |
|---|
| RICE | 112 | 123 | 43.6 | 44.2 | 121.8 | 123-127 |
|---|
| MAIZE | | 26.0 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 24.8 | 27-29 |
|---|
PULSES
- PP
- BM
- Mung | 9.5
4.5
1.8
2.2 | 8.0
3.8
1.5
1.8 | 11.9
4.6
3.1
3.5 | 12.0
4.6
2.4
3.5 | 7.5
3.6
1.3
1.8 | 6.8-7.3
3.5
1.1
1.8 |
|---|
OILSEEDS
- Gnut
- Soy | 28.4
8.5
15.8 | 29.2
10.5
16.2 | 20.0
5.0
12.9 | 19.0
4.8
12 | 27.8
10.4
15.2 | 26 - 27
11 – 12
12 – 13 |
|---|
| COTTON | 35.0 | 33.5 | 11.3 | 11.0 | 30.7 | 29 – 30 |
|---|
| SugarCane | 470 | 469 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 450 | 440 - 460 |
|---|
Source: Government of India, Ministry of agriculture
Area in Million Hectares. Production in Million Tonnes
Cotton in Bales (170 kg)
Notes:
- Weather: Cumulative rainfall June 1 to September 27 is 8% surplus (108% of Long Period Average)
- Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, western UP have had good precipitation
- Pockets of deficiency - Bihar, East UP, Assam, Odisha, TN
- In Aug-Sept excessive rains inflicted some damage to crops in Punjab, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Rajasthan
- Extent of damage still being assessed
- Rains in May encouraged early-sowing
- Given uncertainties – rainfall, acreage, damage to quantity and quality, forecast harvest size is indicative and in a range.
- IMD says La Nina conditions may develop Oct-Dec – Q4 2025
- Weather will continue to impact Indian agriculture due to global warming and climate change
- Reservoir storage levels are satisfactory – higher than last year
- Soil moisture conditions for Rabi planting are excellent
- Restrictions on cane use for ethanol lifted for 2025-26
- Duty-free import of cotton allowed till December 31, 2025
- Import of specified pulses – Tur/arhar, Urad, Masur, Chana, yellow pea – allowed.
- Export restrictions on rice lifted
- Large buffer stocks of rice and wheat together with liberal import of edible oils and pulses likely to ensure availability.