India’s cotton sector is set for a stronger supply position in the 2025–26 season, with the Cotton Association of India (CAI) projecting a 54% rise in closing stocks by the end of September 2026. The higher stock estimate comes amid expectations of steady production, higher imports, and a slight moderation in domestic consumption.

According to CAI’s first estimate for the season that began on October 1, the country’s closing stock is projected at 93.59 lakh bales, up from 60.59 lakh bales a year earlier. The increase reflects a comfortable balance between supply and demand, providing a cushion for the domestic textile industry and exporters.

Based on data from 11 cotton-growing states and trade channels, CAI has pegged cotton pressing for the current season at 305 lakh bales (170 kg per bale). Total October supply is estimated at 93.17 lakh bales, comprising 24.58 lakh bales of pressing, 8 lakh bales of imports, and 60.59 lakh bales of opening stock.

Cotton consumption in October 2025 is estimated at 25 lakh bales, while exports are projected at 1.5 lakh bales. The closing stock for October is expected to be around 69.96 lakh bales, including 39 lakh bales held by textile mills and 27.67 lakh bales of unsold stock with agencies such as the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) and the Maharashtra Federation.

For the full 2025–26 season, cotton consumption is expected to decline slightly to 300 lakh bales, from 314 lakh bales last year, reflecting subdued demand from spinning mills due to global price volatility and softer export orders.

Interestingly, cotton imports are projected to rise to 45 lakh bales, up from 41 lakh bales in 2024–25, as mills look for high-quality fibre blends to meet export-grade yarn requirements. On the other hand, exports are expected to edge down to 17 lakh bales from 18 lakh bales last season, reflecting cautious buying from major markets and stronger domestic availability.

A higher closing stock typically signals ample supply, which could help stabilize domestic cotton prices in the near term. However, with global cotton prices influenced by U.S. weather patterns, Chinese demand, and shifting textile dynamics, Indian cotton markets may continue to experience short-term volatility.

If the CAI’s projections hold, India’s cotton sector could enter 2026 with a comfortable inventory position, offering resilience against any production shocks in the next crop cycle. For traders and millers, this could mean better planning flexibility and moderate input costs, while exporters may face price competition from overseas suppliers.